四川轻化工大学学报(社会科学版)

基于我国2011—2021年省域面板数据，构建省域人工智能发展水平评价指标体系并重构就业结构测度指标，采用固定效应模型、调节效应模型及空间计量模型系统考察人工智能对我国经济高质量发展的影响及作用机理。研究发现，人工智能能够显著促进经济高质量发展，通过一系列稳健性检验后该结论仍然成立。机制分析表明，人工智能通过调节我国就业结构进而影响经济高质量发展水平，具体表现为高等技能劳动力将不断替代中、低等技能劳动力；在中等技能劳动力水平下，人工智能“替代效应”破坏了“创造效应”，部分中等技能劳动力失业风险不断加剧。不同地区及不同就业技能水平下的人工智能对经济高质量发展的影响存在异质性，但总体呈现促进作用。此外，人工智能与经济高质量发展之间还存在空间溢出效应，即人工智能的发展有助于解决区域间经济发展不平衡问题，进而推动经济高质量发展。

Based on China's provincial panel data from 2011 to 2021, this study constructs a provincial evaluation index system for the development level of artificial intelligence and reconstructs the employment structure measurement indexes. On the basis of enriching and improving the evaluation index system for the high quality level of the provincial economy, the paper adopts the fixed effect model, the moderating effect model, and the spatial econometric model to systematically investigate the impact of AI on the high-quality development of China's economy and the mechanism of its effect. The study finds out AI can significantly promote the development of China's economic quality. It is found that AI can significantly promote the high-quality development of the economy, and the conclusion still holds after a series of robustness tests. Mechanism analysis shows that AI affects the level of high-quality development of the economy by regulating the employment structure in China, which is manifested in the fact that higher-skilled laborers will continuously replace middle-and lower-skilled laborers. And at the level of middle-skilled laborers, the "substitution effect" of AI destroys its "creation effect", and some middleskilled laborers will be replaced by middle-skilled laborers. And under the level of middle-skilled labor,the "substitution effect" of AI destroys its "creation effect", and the unemployment risk of some middleskilled labor is increasing. Heterogeneity analysis shows that there are differences in the impact of AI on high-quality economic development in different regions and at different levels of employment skills, but the overall effect shows a facilitating effect. In addition, there is also a spatial spillover effect between AI and high-quality economic development, i.e., the development of AI can help to improve the problem of unbalanced economic development among regions and thus promote high-quality economic development.